Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?
48.7
25 forecasters
6
4 comments
4
Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs?
28%
63 forecasters
7
11 comments
11
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area?
Resolved :
505k
49 forecasters
6
21 comments
21
Nuclear Risk Tournament
How many staff at EA orgs other than ALLFED will be primarily focused on nuclear risk in December 2022?
Resolved :
Annulled
44 forecasters
3
8 comments
8
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?
Resolved :
No
32 forecasters
3
7 comments
7
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Donating Tournament Prizes
6
1 comment
1
Metaculus Meta
When will a benchtop DNA synthesizer be available for sale that can synthesize DNA with the following lengths?
5,000 bases
Oct 6, 2028
10,000 bases
Mar 24, 2030
2
23 comments
23
How many benchtop DNA synthesizers will have been sold worldwide before 2030 that can synthesize DNA with the following base lengths?
1,000 bases
107
5,000 bases
71.4
5,000 bases
Annulled
2
13 comments
13