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Nuclear Technology & Risks
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If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?
Ukraine
27%
Israel
20%
Pakistan
10%
5 others
6
8 comments
8
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will the next non-test detonation of a stateโs nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?
80%
46 forecasters
2
no comments
0
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?
2036-04-02
23 forecasters
3
7 comments
7
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?
28%
53 forecasters
8
7 comments
7
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?
3.5%
55 forecasters
7
2 comments
2
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
What proportion of non-test nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets?
0.169
28 forecasters
3
11 comments
11
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project