Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
🇺🇸
2024 US Election Hub
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?
25%
28
15 comments
15
Ragnarök Series
Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
5%
18
17 comments
17
Ragnarök Series
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?
4.27e-1
9
13 comments
13
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will there be an offensive nuclear detonation on a nation's capital by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere by 2024?
Resolved :
Annulled
2
1 comment
1
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?
Resolved :
Yes
8
24 comments
24
Nuclear Risk Tournament
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?
1.82e-1
1 comment
1
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?
57%
3
2 comments
2
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?
25%
4
13 comments
13
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
If nuclear conflict occurs by 2030, will it start in the period June-September?
31%
4
11 comments
11
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?
84%
4
1 comment
1
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Load More