Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🔭
Bridgewater 2025
🤖
AI Benchmarking
📖
ACX 2025
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will Rob Long believe there is conscious AI before 2030?
51%
26 percentage points this week
24 forecasters
-1
3 comments
3
AGI Outcomes
By 1 January 2067, will any medical interventions for healthy adults extend average lifespans by at least 25 years?
52.2%
101 forecasters
20
14 comments
14
How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2025?
63.7M
20 forecasters
5
1 comment
1
Future Effective Altruism Resources Series
Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?
Resolved :
No
40%
129 forecasters
39
37 comments
37
Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?
79%
89 forecasters
15
13 comments
13
Animal Welfare Series
11
2 comments
2
Animal Welfare Series
How large will the largest single grant made by Open Philanthropy in 2020 be?
Resolved :
33.9M
34M
76 forecasters
11
11 comments
11
When will the Open Philanthropy Project have donated a total of $7 billion of Good Ventures money?
Closed
2034-05-17
23 forecasters
6
19 comments
19
In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?
85%
30 forecasters
4
8 comments
8
What will the US police-to-prison spending ratio be in 2030?
1.82
19 forecasters
4
3 comments
3
Load More