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Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
67%
Saudi Arabia
13.6%
South Korea
12%
7 others
8
9 comments
9
Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?
Sudan
Yes
Niger
67%
Democratic Republic of Congo
61.1%
52 others
34
210 comments
210
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?
Ukraine
33%
Israel
12.5%
Russia
8%
5 others
13
11 comments
11
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?
1%
272 forecasters
24
13 comments
13
Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?
Syria
80%
Haiti
69%
Mali
60%
70 others
30
82 comments
82
How many wild polio cases will be detected by the World Health Organization in the following years?
2025
23.2
2024
Above upper bound
2027
18.3
3 others
3
11 comments
11
How many nuclear weapon states will there be in 2030?
9
55%
10
39%
11
13%
4 others
4
14 comments
14
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?
25%
469 forecasters
58
67 comments
67
Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?
75%
56 forecasters
4
4 comments
4
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?
11%
227 forecasters
37
35 comments
35
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