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Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win78.9%
Nathan Young win16.9%
Other4.2%

Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

14
3 comments3
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Contributed by the QH Forecasting Community community.

Will Andrew Cuomo win the New York City Mayor's race?

Key Factor

Crime in NYC

10%chance
70% this week

Key Factor

Crime in NYC

Important Updates to Prediction Auto-withdrawal

7
65 comments65

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Machine Learning R&D risk levels?

Forecast revealed in 4 days

Platform feature suggestions

112
2956 comments2956
Metaculus Meta

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

38%chance
15% this week

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

Will Donald Trump visit China before July 1, 2025?

resultNo

Will an OpenAI model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 2nd Quarter of 2025?

resultNo

What will be the ranking of the Stuff You Should Know podcast on the Spotify charts on July 1, 2025?

≥56result: Yes
1-25result: No
26-45result: No
and 1 other