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Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win80.6%
Nathan Young win15.3%
Other4.1%

Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

14
3 comments3
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Contributed by the QH Forecasting Community community.

Will Andrew Cuomo win the New York City Mayor's race?

Key Factor

Crime in NYC

10%chance
70% this week

Key Factor

Crime in NYC

Important Updates to Prediction Auto-withdrawal

7
63 comments63

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

38%chance
15% this week

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

Platform feature suggestions

112
2953 comments2953
Metaculus Meta

Will an OpenAI model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 2nd Quarter of 2025?

resultNo

Will Donald Trump visit China before July 1, 2025?

resultNo

Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?

Key Factor

Public statements likely due to crisis with Israel

32%chance
17% this week

Key Factor

Public statements likely due to crisis with Israel

What will be the U.S. International Investment Position in the 1st Quarter of 2025?

result-24.61 trillion USD