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Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?
34%
955 forecasters
105
200 comments
200
The Taiwan Tinderbox
How many UN member states will formally recognize Taiwan at the end of 2025?
11.7
48 forecasters
5
13 comments
13
If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?
43.7%
38 forecasters
2
9 comments
9
Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?
20%
119 forecasters
17
9 comments
9
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)
12 forecasters
if yes
if no
Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?
35%
35%
Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?
55%
55%
4
no comments
0
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition
US Iran War Before 2025?
48 forecasters
if yes
if no
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)
45%
45%
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)
20%
20%
5
1 comment
1
Israel-Gaza Conflict
condition
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)
3 forecasters
if yes
if no
US : China Number of ML Systems (2030)
2.34
US : China Number of ML Systems (2030)
3.07
2
2 comments
2
The Taiwan Tinderbox