• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
💎
Metaculus Cup
🇮🇷🇮🇱
Iran-Israel Conflict
⚡
Current events
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
💵
Fiscal Showdown
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🏦
Big Beautiful Bill
🗽
State of the Union
⏳
AI 2027
🇹🇼🇨🇳
The Taiwan Tinderbox
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Contact
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Q1 AI Benchmarking Results: Pros Crush Bots

10
1 comment1
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?

Key Factor

Flexibility of video appearances increases likelihood

18%chance
54% this week

Key Factor

Flexibility of video appearances increases likelihood

Important Updates to Prediction Auto-withdrawal

7
55 comments55

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

90%chance
30% this week

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

35%chance
12% this week

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?

35%chance
5% today

Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?

40%chance
32% this week

Platform feature suggestions

112
2941 comments2941
Metaculus Meta

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

78%chance
9% this week

Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?

Key Factor

soft power gained by inviting new members

5%chance
59% this week

Key Factor

soft power gained by inviting new members