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How many high-risk laboratory biosecurity incidents will occur between 2022 and 2026 (inclusive)?

103 forecasters

9

Biosecurity Tournament

Will a fatality of one or more per year due to accidental infections in "select agent" pathogen research labs be reported in the next year?

2

Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?

101 forecasters

2

Pandemic Series (2018)

Most useful forecastint tools/data sources

26

Will there be a significant increase in worldwide search interest in the term “power outage” reported by Google Trends between 24 August 2018 and 7 September 2018?

-5

IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?

175 forecasters

12

Ragnarök Series

Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?

129 forecasters

19

Ragnarök Series—results so far

31

Ragnarök Series

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

396 forecasters

34

How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?

20