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0 comments
23 forecasters

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach β‰₯4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

1 comment
13 forecasters

How many chlorination grants will GiveWell recommend after September 20, 2024, and before January 1, 2026?

6 or more89%
02%
12%
0 comments
13 forecasters

Will the habeas corpus be suspended for any group of people within the United States in any of the following years?

0 comments
11 forecasters

In the following years, will any U.S. state or the District of Columbia no longer have a previously existing anti-SLAPP law?

15 comments
38 forecasters

Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?

14%chance
5% today

Key Factors

2 comments
11 forecasters

Will President Donald J. Trump take legal action against the BBC before 2026?

Trump files a lawsuit in the USA only68%
Trump does not file a lawsuit in the USA or the UK16.8%
Trump files a lawsuit in the UK only9.7%
1 comment
17 forecasters

Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files before January 20, 2029?

33.3%chance
22 comments
46 forecasters

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Current estimate
>2193 deaths
137 comments
317 forecasters

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

49%chance

Key Factors

2 comments
33 forecasters

Will another Canadian MP defect or resign before 2026?

50%chance

Key Factors