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Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026?
Deny some entities
35%
Deny ≤99 countries
15%
Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing
7%
4 others
5
3 comments
3
Regulation of AI
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
2032-11-23
176
486 comments
486
AGI Outcomes
What will be the best score on the InterCode (Bash) benchmark before 2025?
55.9
5
1 comment
1
AI Benchmarks
When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?
2028-07-11
94
72 comments
72
AGI Outcomes
When will an AI be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try?
2027-03-09
29
18 comments
18
AI Demonstrations
When will programs write programs for us?
Resolved :
Jul 7, 2021
58
68 comments
68
AI Demonstrations
When will PHP die?
2040-03-23
10
13 comments
13
What distributions would you like?
8
28 comments
28
Metaculus Meta
What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?
Resolved :
38
4
2 comments
2
Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?
47%
5