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Metaculus Community Giving Report (2023 – August 2025)

2
0 comments
3 comments
36 forecasters

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

Current estimate
64.8%
3 comments
35 forecasters

Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?

Alphabet36.4%
OpenAI23.2%
Anthropic15.9%
26 comments
148 forecasters

Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?

95%chance
37% this week
8 comments
60 forecasters

How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?

395%
44.6%
00.1%
4 comments
25 forecasters

When will Adelita Grijalva be sworn in?

Current estimate
02 Nov 2025
2 comments
54 forecasters

Will Donald Trump's 100% tariff on China take effect on November 1, 2025?

5%chance
2 comments
9 forecasters

Will Russia, India, and China hold a trilateral (three-way) meeting before September 1, 2026?

62%chance
52% this week
condition

Will Donald Trump's 100% tariff on China take effect on November 1, 2025?

6 forecasters
if yes
if no

What will the open value of the S&P 500 be on November 2, 2025?

6514

What will the open value of the S&P 500 be on November 2, 2025?

6789
2
0 comments
6
6 forecasters
Current Events⚡
0 comments
41 forecasters

What will the open value of the S&P 500 be on November 2, 2025?

Current estimate
6646