Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🔭
Bridgewater 2025
🤖
AI Benchmarking
📖
ACX 2025
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will SpaceX land anything on Mars before 2030?
58%
2170 forecasters
176
106 comments
106
Who will be the first group to land a human on Mars?
SpaceX
69%
NASA
25%
CNSA
15%
2 others
23
2 comments
2
Will SpaceX land people on Mars before 2030?
0.8%
4286 forecasters
906
452 comments
452
Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?
80%
277 forecasters
24
44 comments
44
When will the following vehicles launch into orbit?
Terran R
1 Jan 2026
Neutron
7 Nov 2025
Starship
9 Apr 2025
3 others
20
78 comments
78
🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?
Resolved :
Yes
52%
176 forecasters
25
44 comments
44
Will Elon Musk become the first trillionaire?
30%
297 forecasters
28
74 comments
74
Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars?
5%
436 forecasters
55
54 comments
54
When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?
2027-07-21
201 forecasters
42
59 comments
59
Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?
24%
101 forecasters
14
14 comments
14
Load More