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Will "Krantz data" play a critical role in the alignment of artificial superintelligence before 2100?
1%
16 forecasters
-3
5 comments
5
Drake's Equation 1st Parameter R∗: What is the average rate of formation of suitable stars (stars/year) in our galaxy?
4.53
153 forecasters
28
20 comments
20
Fermi Paradox Series
Will a prediction market outperform Nate Silver's forecasts for the Super Tuesday primaries?
Resolved :
Yes
44%
37 forecasters
11
17 comments
17
A medical pathway to complete painlessness?
Resolved :
No
5%
260 forecasters
32
8 comments
8
A triumph over the mite-y?
Resolved :
No
61%
42 forecasters
5
14 comments
14
Zapping Zika #5: Clinical trials of IFITM3-based therapies?
Resolved :
No
61%
61 forecasters
6
1 comment
1
Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?
Resolved :
Yes
55%
58 forecasters
4
9 comments
9
Will Metaculus's predictions significantly improve in the next 6 months?
Resolved :
No
55%
57 forecasters
8
14 comments
14
Numerical question updates
14 comments
14
Metaculus Meta
Most useful forecastint tools/data sources
26
33 comments
33
Metaculus Meta
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