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Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?
2%
285 forecasters
26
81 comments
81
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Will 3 mainstream American news outlets report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack before August 21, 2033?
45%
32 forecasters
8
23 comments
23
Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?
Resolved :
No
42%
31 forecasters
7
12 comments
12
What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?
Resolved :
11
12.9
25 forecasters
3
8 comments
8
Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?
Poland
Ambiguous
Latvia
Ambiguous
Lithuania
Ambiguous
9 others
9
40 comments
40
Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?
United States
35%
Estonia
28%
Poland
28%
9 others
9
7 comments
7
Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?
Resolved :
Yes
99%
172 forecasters
15
76 comments
76
Israel-Gaza Conflict