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Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?
1%
275 forecasters
28
61 comments
61
Will the UK Labour Party have a female leader before 2030?
19%
63 forecasters
10
10 comments
10
Article 50 triggered by UK by end of March 2017?
Resolved :
Yes
67%
36 forecasters
5
2 comments
2
Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?
Resolved :
No
13%
288 forecasters
28
31 comments
31
Will the UK elections lead to an absolute majority for one party in parliament?
Resolved :
No
70%
10 forecasters
3
5 comments
5
Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?
Resolved :
No
33%
81 forecasters
9
7 comments
7
Before 8 September 2018, will the UK request an extension to Article 50 for leaving the EU?
Resolved :
No
1%
74 forecasters
7
7 comments
7
IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge
Will Theresa May be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2019?
Resolved :
Yes
81%
70 forecasters
16
24 comments
24
Will UK have general elections before 29 March 2019?
Resolved :
No
25%
60 forecasters
7
9 comments
9
Will the first draft of Brexit withdrawal agreement be rejected?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
75%
32 forecasters
7
14 comments
14
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