Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?
55%
93 forecasters
10
10 comments
10
condition
2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)
Closed
24 forecasters
if yes
if no
Donald Trump Incarceration by 2030?
5%
5%
Donald Trump Incarceration by 2030?
40%
40%
3
no comments
0
condition
2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)
Closed
40 forecasters
if yes
if no
Ukrainian territory lost in 2029?
90%
90%
Ukrainian territory lost in 2029?
73%
73%
5
no comments
0
condition
2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)
Closed
18 forecasters
if yes
if no
USA Withdraws From a Mutual Defence Treaty?
26%
26%
USA Withdraws From a Mutual Defence Treaty?
6%
6%
2
2 comments
2
condition
Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?
Closed
24 forecasters
if yes
if no
Democrat Wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
50%
50%
Democrat Wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
61%
61%
2
5 comments
5
condition
2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)
Closed
67 forecasters
if yes
if no
US is a NATO Member until 2029?
95%
95%
US is a NATO Member until 2029?
99%
99%
7
14 comments
14
2024 Electoral Consequences