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Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win77.6%
Nathan Young win20.4%
Other2%

Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

14
3 comments3
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?

30%chance
53% this week

Important Updates to Prediction Auto-withdrawal

7
61 comments61

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

38%chance
15% this week

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?

Key Factor

Public statements likely due to crisis with Israel

33%chance
18% this week

Key Factor

Public statements likely due to crisis with Israel

What will be the U.S. International Investment Position in the 1st Quarter of 2025?

result-24.61 trillion USD

What proportions of influenza A subtype sequences will CDC report during the 2025-2026 season?

Forecast revealed in 6 days

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

94%chance
4% this week

Platform feature suggestions

112
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