Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🔭
Bridgewater 2025
🤖
AI Benchmarking
🌍
USAID Outlook
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?
19.8%
77 forecasters
5
11 comments
11
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?
15%
147 forecasters
20
39 comments
39
Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?
8.5%
372 forecasters
36
25 comments
25
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?
12%
116 forecasters
14
8 comments
8
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will Norway announce an official referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in September 2025?
10%
42 forecasters
3
3 comments
3
Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?
Resolved :
No
40%
112 forecasters
12
6 comments
6
Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 8 September 2018?
Resolved :
No
1%
125 forecasters
6
2 comments
2
IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge
Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?
Resolved :
Yes
99.6%
207 forecasters
25
21 comments
21
Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?
Resolved :
No
2%
128 forecasters
31
32 comments
32
Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?
Resolved :
No
10%
52 forecasters
7
3 comments
3
Load More