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📈Market Pulse Q2 Winners: Evidence of Edge

4
1 comment1
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q2

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win71.8%
Nathan Young win23.8%
Other4.3%

Market Pulse 25Q3 Opens: Will Q2’s Edge Hold?

3
no comments0
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3

Will the One Big Beautiful Bill Act contain a 5+ year AI moratorium provision and be signed into law before July 2026?

5%chance
64% this week

Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?

Key Factor

Potential retaliation if Khamenei is harmed

resultYes

Key Factor

Potential retaliation if Khamenei is harmed

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

resultYes

Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?

74%chance
6% today

Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025?

Forecast revealed tomorrow

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

30%chance
6% this week

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

[Short fuse] Will an image of Donald Trump appear on the front page of the New York Times on July 4, 2025?

Key Factor

Increased odds of Trump's media prominence.

resultNo

Key Factor

Increased odds of Trump's media prominence.