Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🔭
Bridgewater 2025
🤖
AI Benchmarking
🌍
USAID Outlook
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will there be a frontier AI model from the given country before 2035?
India
50%
Israel
40%
Russia
10%
9
2 comments
2
Future of AI
Who will be the first long-term President of Russia after Putin?
Mikhail Mishustin
20%
Nikolai Patrushev
4%
Dmitry Medvedev
3%
11 others
9
32 comments
32
When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?
Jul 2029
635 forecasters
72
113 comments
113
Will a post-Putin Russia substantially democratise within 5 years?
13%
132 forecasters
17
17 comments
17
Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?
Resolved :
No
40%
112 forecasters
12
6 comments
6
When will Vladimir Putin leave power in Russia?
Closed
Apr 2027
77 forecasters
26
12 comments
12
Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?
Resolved :
No
0.1%
178 forecasters
6
6 comments
6
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Will there be a China-Russia war by 2035?
2%
224 forecasters
18
52 comments
52
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?
Resolved :
Yes
99%
1157 forecasters
237
1.9k comments
1.9k
2022 Scott Alexander predictions
What will be Putin's approval rating value 3 months after the potential invasion of Ukraine?
Resolved :
83
79.1
53 forecasters
8
12 comments
12
Load More