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📈Market Pulse Q2 Winners: Evidence of Edge

5
1 comment1
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q2

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win82.3%
Nathan Young win15.6%
Other2.1%

Market Pulse 25Q3 Opens: Will Q2’s Edge Hold?

3
no comments0
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Machine Learning R&D risk levels?

Forecast revealed in 2 days

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

38%chance

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

95%chance
3% this week

Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?

Key Factor

Public statements likely due to crisis with Israel

28%chance

Key Factor

Public statements likely due to crisis with Israel

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Anthropic reach or surpass ASL-4?

13 Apr 2029

What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025?

Forecast revealed tomorrow

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on AI Self-improvement?

Forecast revealed in 2 days