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Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?
1%
181 forecasters
16
15 comments
15
Will combat troops from any NATO country be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?
25%
81 forecasters
8
13 comments
13
Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?
Resolved :
No
3%
75 forecasters
17
16 comments
16
What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?
Resolved :
11
12.9
25 forecasters
3
8 comments
8
Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?
Resolved :
Yes
99%
1157 forecasters
237
1.9k comments
1.9k
2022 Scott Alexander predictions
Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?
Resolved :
No
10%
239 forecasters
22
54 comments
54
Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?
Resolved :
Yes
99%
263 forecasters
23
23 comments
23
Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?
Resolved :
No
1%
66 forecasters
11
15 comments
15
Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?
Resolved :
No
1%
654 forecasters
22
62 comments
62
Ukraine Conflict
Ukraine Conflict Update for Wednesday, 2022-03-09
6
no comments
0
Ukraine Conflict
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