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Five years after AGI, will there be universal basic income?
Key Factor
well being of people
30%
chance
10% this week
Key Factor
well being of people
Five years after AGI, what will be the U.S.’s employment to population ratio?
34.1%
By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?
16%
chance
Five years after AGI, will an AI Windfall Clause have been activated?
3%
chance
Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?
10%
chance
Five years after AGI, will human mind uploading have happened?
1%
chance
Five years after AGI, what will be the U.S.’s inequality level (Gini index)?
51.3
Gini
Five years after AGI, will a single AI company dominate the world economy?
6%
chance
Five years after AGI, will there be widely available radical life extension treatment?
60%
chance
Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?
40%
chance
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