Question Feed | Metaculus

5 comments

38 forecasters

5Y after AGI, richest person in world?

Current estimate

1.47T $

Key Factors

nature of industry will change, technology will be considered like public infrastructure
redistribution of wealth through policy
value of the billionaire

11 comments

161 forecasters

5Y after AGI, universal basic income?

25%chance

8% this week

Key Factors

redistribution of wealth
well being of people
Deployment of AGI-powered public administration

13 comments

39 forecasters

5Y after AGI, digital people population?

Current estimate

1.03M people

5 comments

72 forecasters

5Y after AGI, nuclear fusion 10% world energy

20%chance

5% this week

12 comments

48 forecasters

5Y after AGI, life satisfaction?

Current estimate

4.86 score

10 comments

58 forecasters

5Y after AGI, engineered pandemic?

18.9%chance

3.9% this week

4 comments

28 forecasters

5Y after AGI, US employment-population ratio?

Current estimate

41.8%

3 comments

35 forecasters

5Y after AGI, % of people in extreme poverty?

Current estimate

7.16%

1 comment

41 forecasters

5Y after AGI, Windfall Clause activated?

1%chance

26 comments

50 forecasters

5Y after AGI, AI philosophical competence?

11%chance

5 comments

29 forecasters

5Y after AGI, U.S. Gini index?

Current estimate

48.3 Gini

1 comment

79 forecasters

5Y after AGI, AI company dominates economy?

5%chance

0 comments

66 forecasters

5Y after AGI, World War III?

11%chance

4 comments

98 forecasters

5Y after AGI, radical life extension?

53%chance

2 comments

23 forecasters

5Y after AGI, global carbon emissions?

Current estimate

32.1B billion tonnes

0 comments

28 forecasters

5Y after AGI, energy consumption?

Current estimate

546k TWh

1 comment

55 forecasters

5Y after AGI, Dyson swarm under construction?

1%chance

2 comments

40 forecasters

5Y after AGI, long reflection underway?

10%chance

1 comment

41 forecasters

5Y after AGI, biological human population?

Current estimate

8.75B people

8 comments

17 forecasters

5Y after AGI, world GDP per capita?-2

Current estimate

23.8k $

10 comments

22 forecasters

5Y after AGI, factory farming?

Current estimate

81.8B billion animals

4 comments

5Y after AGI, democracy?

Annulled

20 comments

65 forecasters

5Y after AGI, AI company military power?

5%chance

11 comments

162 forecasters

Five years after AGI, will humans be extinct?

1%chance