Question Feed | Metaculus

5 comments

35 forecasters

5Y after AGI, richest person in world?

Current estimate

1.43T $

Key Factors

nature of industry will change, technology will be considered like public infrastructure
redistribution of wealth through policy
value of the billionaire

9 comments

85 forecasters

5Y after AGI, human mind uploading?

5%chance

4% this week

4 comments

28 forecasters

5Y after AGI, US employment-population ratio?

Current estimate

41.8%

11 comments

156 forecasters

5Y after AGI, universal basic income?

33%chance

Key Factors

redistribution of wealth
well being of people
Deployment of AGI-powered public administration

1 comment

78 forecasters

5Y after AGI, AI company dominates economy?

5%chance

1 comment

40 forecasters

5Y after AGI, Windfall Clause activated?

1%chance

26 comments

49 forecasters

5Y after AGI, AI philosophical competence?

11%chance

5 comments

71 forecasters

5Y after AGI, nuclear fusion 10% world energy

15%chance

1 comment

53 forecasters

5Y after AGI, Dyson swarm under construction?

1%chance

4 comments

98 forecasters

5Y after AGI, radical life extension?

53%chance

0 comments

28 forecasters

5Y after AGI, energy consumption?

Current estimate

553k TWh

10 comments

57 forecasters

5Y after AGI, engineered pandemic?

5%chance

0 comments

66 forecasters

5Y after AGI, World War III?

8%chance

3 comments

35 forecasters

5Y after AGI, % of people in extreme poverty?

Current estimate

7.02%

11 comments

162 forecasters

Five years after AGI, will humans be extinct?

1%chance

1 comment

41 forecasters

5Y after AGI, biological human population?

Current estimate

8.76B people

2 comments

23 forecasters

5Y after AGI, global carbon emissions?

Current estimate

32.1B billion tonnes

20 comments

65 forecasters

5Y after AGI, AI company military power?

5%chance

10 comments

37 forecasters

5Y after AGI, nuclear deterrence undermined?

40%chance

8 comments

17 forecasters

5Y after AGI, world GDP per capita?-2

Current estimate

23.8k $

6 comments

45 forecasters

5Y after AGI, farthest spacecraft?

1%chance

10 comments

22 forecasters

5Y after AGI, factory farming?

Current estimate

74.6B billion animals

12 comments

48 forecasters

5Y after AGI, life satisfaction?

Current estimate

4.79 score

4 comments

5Y after AGI, democracy?

Annulled