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ignorance.prior
Predictions
122
Comments
152
Member Since
June 2016
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by ignorance.prior
35 comments
98 forecasters
How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?
community
3.56M
result
3.664292M
66 comments
117 forecasters
What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?
community
18.5k
result
18.59193k
351 comments
363 forecasters
What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?
community
0.00587
result
0.004156
4 comments
40 forecasters
Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?
25%
chance
37 comments
75 forecasters
Will the FDA authorise the use of remdesivir to treat COVID-19 by the end of 2020?
Ambiguous
24 comments
63 forecasters
Will any city or town in the US be put under mandated lockdown by the end of 2020 due to the novel coronavirus outbreak?
result
Yes
209 comments
236 forecasters
Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?
result
No
24 comments
66 forecasters
If the total estimated number of novel coronavirus cases before 2021 exceeds 100 million, how many people will die before January 1, 2021?
community
2.89M
result
5.673571M
55 comments
74 forecasters
For how many countries will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice by May 15, due to the novel coronavirus?
community
>60
result
More than 60
42 comments
206 forecasters
Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?
result
No
9 comments
44 forecasters
What proportion of novel coronavirus infections outside China by March 27 will be due to exposure in China?
community
0.0692
result
0.087
5 comments
41 forecasters
How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Western Pacific Region, outside of China and Taiwan, by March 27?
community
20.7k
result
17.94k
17 comments
59 forecasters
How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27?
community
98.7k
result
81.137k
16 comments
50 forecasters
How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO South-East Asia Region by March 27?
community
2923
result
2932
22 comments
62 forecasters
How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27?
community
302k
result
286.697k
20 comments
53 forecasters
How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO African region by March 27?
community
2361
result
2419
24 comments
53 forecasters
How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO East Mediterranean region by March 27?
community
37k
result
35.249k
7 comments
35 forecasters
When will >100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?
Latest estimate
26 Nov 2027
This question is closed for forecasting.
7 comments
91 forecasters
Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated before 2051?
36%
chance