Jgalt

Predictions74421

Comments21504

Member SinceJuly 2016

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by Jgalt

18 comments

94 forecasters

Which party's candidate will win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Conservative Party

0.1%

Labour Party

result: Yes

Green Party

0.1%

Reform UK

11.2%

3 others

3 comments

33 forecasters

Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election?

55%chance

4 comments

6 forecasters

How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (2029)

Labour Party

100

Conservative Party

74.1

Liberal Democrats

66.7

Reform UK

279

3 others

15 comments

244 forecasters

Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee for President of the United States?

Gavin Newsom

24.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

10.2%

Pete Buttigieg

8.2%

Other

42.3%

4 others

Key Factors

California's governance reputation
slowboring.com:
Gavin Newsom is very similar to Kamala Harris
Newsom hasn't beaten Republicans

15 comments

251 forecasters

Who will be the 2028 Republican nominee for President of the United States?

JD Vance

42.7%

Ron DeSantis

4.3%

Marco Rubio

23.1%

Other

25.6%

4 others

8 comments

44 forecasters

How many seats in the Canadian House of Commons will these parties win in the 2025 federal election?

Liberal

result: 169 seats

Conservative

result: 144 seats

Bloc Québécois

result: 22 seats

New Democratic

result: 7 seats

2 others

16 comments

17 forecasters

What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates?

Kamala Harris, October 1 2024

result: 1.3

Kamala Harris, November 1 2024

result: -1.6

Kamala Harris, September 1 2024

result: -0.9

Donald Trump, November 1 2024

result: -8.7

2 others

20 comments

15 forecasters

How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)?

Donald Trump

result: 12.9

Kamala Harris

result: 7.2

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

result: 2.4

13 comments

429 forecasters

Will J.D. Vance become President of the United States before January 20, 2029?

20%chance

Key Factors

trumps health
Metrics and republican health
does Vance get the nomination

14 comments

16 forecasters

What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024?

Alaska

result: 13.1

Iowa

result: 13.2

Ohio

result: 11.1

Texas

result: 13.8

21 others

8 comments

25 forecasters

If Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election, how many SCOTUS Justices will have been appointed by him on Jan 21, 2029?

19.2%

48.5%

25.3%

6.1%

7 or more

102 comments

214 forecasters

Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?

resultNo

35 comments

37 forecasters

Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires?

Jack Smith (special counsel)

result: No

Alvin Bragg (Manhattan DA)

result: No

Arthur Engoron (New York judge)

result: No

Stephanie Clifford (AKA Stormy Daniels)

result: No

7 others

25 comments

48 forecasters

Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before January 1, 2035?

43%chance

7% this week

Key Factors

bbc.co.uk:
Nigel Farage says 'no wrongdoing' after benefits from ally not declared
Reform polling numbers are declining

9 comments

38 forecasters

Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election?

resultYes

11 comments

51 forecasters

Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election?

resultNo