christian
Predictions1152
Comments288
Member SinceApril 2017
2 comments
45 forecasters
When will Metaculus reach 3 million total forecasts? (Prizes inside)
Current estimate
04 Nov 2025 12:57
0 comments
1 forecaster
By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?
34%chance
0 comments
1 forecaster
Will the combined smartphone market share of Chinese brands in Africa be at least 50% based on the 12‑month average for January–December 2030?
37%chance
0 comments
3 forecasters
By Dec 31, 2030, will China impose new export controls (licenses/quotas/bans) on ≥1 additional semiconductor mineral (excluding gallium/germanium)?
80%chance