Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
a
/
文
Log in
Sign Up
christian
Predictions
1152
Comments
288
Member Since
April 2017
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by christian
We're Hiring: Product, Engineering, Communications & Consulting Roles at Metaculus
6
1
1
comment
🏆 Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3 Winners and Recap
5
0
comments
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3
2
comments
45
forecasters
When will Metaculus reach 3 million total forecasts? (Prizes inside)
Current estimate
04 Nov 2025 12:57
0
comments
1
forecaster
By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?
34%
chance
Launched: The RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge | $10K in Prizes + Opportunities for Students
8
12
12
comments
RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge
Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index
16
6
6
comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!
4
0
comments
0
comments
1
forecaster
Will the combined smartphone market share of Chinese brands in Africa be at least 50% based on the 12‑month average for January–December 2030?
37%
chance
0
comments
3
forecasters
By Dec 31, 2030, will China impose new export controls (licenses/quotas/bans) on ≥1 additional semiconductor mineral (excluding gallium/germanium)?
80%
chance
0
comments
Will processors based on the RISC-V architecture account for at least 30% of global processor unit shipments in the calendar year 2030?
Load More