darkives

Predictions12268

Comments1316

Member SinceSeptember 2017

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by darkives

44 forecasters

Will Iceland vote Yes in the 2026 EU negotiations referendum?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 12 hours

%chance

111 forecasters

Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal on any day before September 2026?

50%chance

18% this week

Key Factors

theitem.com:
What to know about the demining and escort mission that US allies want for the Strait of Hormuz - The Sumter Item
cbsnews.com:
Trump says the Strait of Hormuz is "safe, secure and pristine." Shipping companies aren't convinced.
Opening for demining delays normal traffic

37 forecasters

Will there be an unfilled Supreme Court vacancy on January 20, 2029, conditional on control of Congress?

Democratic Congress25%

Republican Congress6%

Split Congress17%

45 forecasters

Will Donald Trump declare a national emergency related to election integrity before November 3, 2026?

32%chance

42 forecasters

Will Donald Trump be impeached for a third time, conditional on control of Congress?

Democratic Congress80%

Republican Congress3%

Split Congress53%

37 forecasters

Will federal courts block the USPS mail-in ballot restrictions before Election Day?

60%chance

101 forecasters

What percentage of seats will Prosperity win in the 2026 Ethiopian general election?

community

89.3%

result

90.123%

5 forecasters

Which of these approaches will be the first to mass produce three commodity chemicals?

Hybrid bio-chemo or electro-bio integration10.1%

Engineered consortia and synthetic ecology16.2%

Minimal or synthetic cell chassis20.2%

None before 203630.3%

3 others

135 forecasters

What will be the verdict in Musk v. Altman et al?

Defendant(s) liable21.6%

Defendants not liableresult: Yes

None before September9.3%

11 forecasters

Will a UK public body use an AI-generated map to identify areas with sufficient ecological monitoring coverage for trend analysis before 2030?

50%chance

Key Factors

AI/ML is suited for analyzing large datasets

8 forecasters

Will a government-commissioned framework for quantifying net ecosystem-resilience impact of UK infrastructure projects exist before 2035?

50%chance

9 forecasters

If living biosensors are successfully deployed before 2032, will they be deployed across ≥70% of the UK SSSI's area before 2038?

16%chance

Key Factors

Strong incentives for non-SSSI use cases
High regulation of SSSIs limits deployment

8 forecasters

What will be the annual global economic cost of soil degradation in 2035?

Current estimate

13.2T US$

Key Factors

Climate change accelerates degradation

29 forecasters

[Short fuse] Will a Kenyan win the 2026 Boston marathon?

resultYes

14 forecasters

Will the Argo Program cover the deep ocean before 2036?

45%chance

110 forecasters

When will the 2026 US partial government shutdown end?

community

>01 May 2026 01:00

result

30 Apr 2026 21:05 UTC

20 forecasters

What will be the status of the Arctic Metagaz before May 2026?

Explosion/SpillAnnulled

Ship securedAnnulled

Ship remains adriftAnnulled

177 forecasters

Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before April 27, 2026?

resultNo

200 forecasters

Will Anthropic be a designated supply chain risk on May 1, 2026?

resultYes

104 forecasters

How many points will the Presidents' Trophy winner have at the end of the 2025–2026 NHL season?

community

119 Points

result

121 Points

7 forecasters

How far will the Duke Blue Devils advance in the NCAA's 2026 March Madness?

Elite Eightresult: Yes

Final Four23.3%

Championship Game (loss)19.1%

Championship Game (win)23.1%

3 others

76 forecasters

How many times will President Donald Trump be impeached by the end of his second term?

244%

341.3%

412.4%

5 or more2.3%

100 forecasters

What will Finland score on the 2026 World Happiness Report?

community

7.76

result

7.811

91 forecasters

Which book will win the 2025 National Book Critics Circle Award for fiction?

The Antidote22.5%

Audition20%

On the Calculation of Volume (Book III)12%

We Do Not Partresult: Yes

The Wilderness19.5%