darkives

Predictions12885

Comments1482

Member SinceSeptember 2017

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by darkives

0 comments

50 forecasters

Will criminal or civil immigration charges be brought against Ilhan Omar before 2027?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 4 days

%chance

5 comments

103 forecasters

Will the U.S. and Iran return to war before December 2026?

39%chance

21% this week

Key Factors

Trump may resume strikes after the midterms
Netanyahu has incentives to continue attacks
Negotiations alongside buildup may deter renewed war

4 comments

79 forecasters

How many inches of snow will fall in Central Park in December 2026?

Zero, including trace

Hidden

>0 and <1 inch

Hidden

≥1 and <3 inches

Hidden

≥3 and <6 inches

Hidden

2 others

Key Factors

Strong El Niño favors a snowless December

6 comments

106 forecasters

How many seats will PP and Vox collectively receive in the 2026 Spanish general election?

Current estimate

197 Seats

Key Factors

europapress.es:
Al menos 68 muertos y 107 heridos, 21 en la UCI, tras chocar dos...
Crash may shift votes toward PP and Vox

5 comments

57 forecasters

Who will win the 2026 Brazilian Presidential election?

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

result: Yes

Flávio Bolsonaro

70%

12 comments

110 forecasters

What will be the all-time highest close price of NVDA before January 1, 2027?

Current estimate

239 $

6 comments

122 forecasters

Will José Mourinho still be the manager for Real Madrid on December 31, 2026?

98%chance

Key Factors

El Clásico win strengthens Mourinho’s position
Real Madrid often sacks managers after UCL failure
Sacking in December is rare for Real Madrid

18 comments

152 forecasters

Will Trump demolish the Kennedy Center before January 1, 2027?

1%chance

Key Factors

Renovation plans do not indicate demolition
cnn.com:
Donation pledges to Kennedy Center fell by more than 100% in months after Trump’s name added, internal documents show | CNN Politics

8 comments

122 forecasters

Who will be the 2026 Time Person of the Year?

Mark Carney

9.3%

Pope Leo XIV

10.3%

Zohran Mamdani

22.7%

Other

41.2%

8 others

Key Factors

Last year’s AI selection weakens repeat AI contenders
Mamdani’s sustained year-long prominence boosts his chances
Trump’s prior selection and poor approval hurt his chances

0 comments

28 forecasters

How many shrimp per year will be covered by SWP's Humane Slaughter Initiative agreements on July 1, 2027?

Current estimate

8.02B Shrimp

21 comments

135 forecasters

Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli election?

Likud

result: Yes

Yashar

63.6%

Other

0.6%

23 comments

144 forecasters

Who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Harry Kane

result: Yes

Kylian Mbappé

2.9%

Rodri

Lamine Yamal

24.9%

3 others

3 comments

33 forecasters

Will at least one additional U.S. state enact a cage-free egg requirement before July 2027?

10%chance

14 comments

13 forecasters

How many locally acquired Chikungunya cases will be reported in the European Economic Area in 2026?

Latest estimate

250 cases

This question is closed for forecasting.

9 comments

18 forecasters

Will the WHO declare an H5 virus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2028?

5%chance

13 comments

13 forecasters

What proportion of influenza A will be H1N1 during the 2026/27 influenza season?

Current estimate

72.6%