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darkives
Predictions
12653
Comments
1449
Member Since
September 2017
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by darkives
2 comments
25 forecasters
Will Trump demolish the Kennedy Center before January 1, 2027?
Current estimate
Revealed
tomorrow
%
chance
0 comments
15 forecasters
How many shrimp per year will be covered by SWP's Humane Slaughter Initiative agreements on July 1, 2027?
Current estimate
8.51B Shrimp
12 comments
85 forecasters
Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli election?
Likud
41.2%
Yashar
57.8%
Other
1%
Key Factors
Yashar favored by prediction markets
No party has won 61 seats in Israel
5 comments
106 forecasters
Who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Harry Kane
57.6%
Kylian Mbappé
8.4%
Rodri
5.1%
Lamine Yamal
21.6%
3 others
Key Factors
Yamal has World Cup medal in World Cup year
Vote complexity favors consensus candidates
Kane is Polymarket favorite at 62%
1 comment
21 forecasters
Will at least one additional U.S. state enact a cage-free egg requirement before July 2027?
13%
chance
9 comments
9 forecasters
How many locally acquired Chikungunya cases will be reported in the European Economic Area in 2026?
Current estimate
128 cases
4 comments
14 forecasters
Will the WHO declare an H5 virus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2028?
5%
chance
4 comments
8 forecasters
What proportion of influenza A will be H1N1 during the 2026/27 influenza season?
Current estimate
38.8%
6 comments
11 forecasters
How many measles cases will be reported in the United States and in the European Economic Area in 2027?
United States
4505
European Economic Area
3285
12 comments
75 forecasters
How many vehicles will enter Sturgis for the 86th Annual Sturgis Motorcycle Rally?
community
458k Vehicles
result
448.166k Vehicles
4 comments
13 forecasters
What will be OpenAI's market cap when its IPO lock-up period ends?
Current estimate
1.84T $
6 comments
89 forecasters
Who will be the 2026 Republican nominee for U.S. Senator from South Carolina?
Russell Fry
10.4%
Darline Graham Nordone
result:
Yes
Ralph Norman
23.8%
Other
2.1%
3 others
5 comments
103 forecasters
What will be the price of Brent crude on August 28, 2026?
community
90.4 $
result
89.31 $
1 comment
14 forecasters
Who will be the 2026 Democratic nominee for U.S. Senator from Maine?
Troy Jackson
result:
Yes
Nirav Shah
1.8%
Jordan Wood
0.1%
Shenna Bellows
0.4%
5 others
18 comments
128 forecasters
Will the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool be fully repaired before September 2026?
result
No
10 comments
105 forecasters
Will Iceland vote Yes in the 2026 EU negotiations referendum?
result
No
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