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mdickens
Predictions
27
Comments
61
Member Since
November 2017
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Questions by mdickens
1
comment
15
forecasters
In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to long term future charities?
Latest estimate
13.8
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
18
forecasters
In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to animal welfare?
Current estimate
12.2%
1
comment
16
forecasters
In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to meta charities?
Latest estimate
24.6
This question is closed for forecasting.
4
comments
15
forecasters
In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to cause prioritization?
Current estimate
17.4%
1
comment
13
forecasters
How much money will GiveWell move in 2031?
Current estimate
300M $
3
comments
22
forecasters
In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?
Latest estimate
37
This question is closed for forecasting.
4
comments
21
forecasters
In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?
Current estimate
31.2%
10
comments
52
forecasters
If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?
80%
chance
8
comments
30
forecasters
In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?
85%
chance
8
comments
40
forecasters
Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?
32%
chance
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