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Tamay
Predictions
2546
Comments
3061
Member Since
April 2018
links
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by Tamay
8
comments
42
forecasters
How large will the largest cluster used to train an AI model be, by the end of the following years?
4
comments
54
forecasters
Will Fathom Radiant ship a commercial product before 2026?
2%
chance
3%
this week
5
comments
31
forecasters
When will an ML model achieve 90% of human-crowd performance on Autocast?
Current estimate
03 Feb 2027
Results from the AI Progress Essay Contest
12
3
3
comments
AI Progress Essay Contest
3
comments
68
forecasters
Will Facebook decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023?
result
No
2
comments
57
forecasters
Will the weights of the 175B parameter model be made publicly available via a leak or hack by 2023?
result
No
7
comments
36
forecasters
What will be the total aggregate score given to Russia by Freedom House in 2023?
community
13.2
result
Annulled
2
comments
23
forecasters
Will Peter Daszak be the president of EcoHealth Alliance on January 1, 2024?
result
Yes
4
comments
12
forecasters
What will the largest Common Crawl be, in TiB, by 2032?
Current estimate
1088 TiB
15
comments
43
forecasters
How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?
community
1.3×10²⁵
result
2.1×10²⁵
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