SimonM

Predictions66917

Comments1111

Member SinceMarch 2020

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Questions by SimonM

26 comments

151 forecasters

Will the next James Bond be female?

6%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

4 comments

21 forecasters

How many deaths from terrorism in Afghanistan in 2021?

Latest estimate

7009

This question is closed for forecasting.

6 comments

12 forecasters

How many deaths will be caused by terrorism globally in 2025?

Current estimate

26k deaths

1 comment

11 forecasters

How many deaths will be caused by terrorism globally in 2021?

community

18.5k

result

11.526k

2 comments

23 forecasters

How many deaths from terrorism in 2020?

community

20.4k

result

22.847k

6 comments

58 forecasters

Will there be a European Army before 2032?

38%chance

2 comments

14 forecasters

Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 1000 questions?

78%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

3 comments

12 forecasters

Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions?

resultYes

12 comments

13 forecasters

Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 100 questions?

64%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

9 comments

14 forecasters

Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 1000 questions?

66%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.