exmateriae

Predictions49418

Comments4700

Member SinceAugust 2021

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Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by exmateriae

10 comments

70 forecasters

What will be the World Bank monthly price of liquid sulphur (Tampa) for Q3 2026?

community

691 USD/metric ton

result

705 USD/metric ton

55 comments

121 forecasters

Will Shakira's "Dai Dai" outpeak Shakira's "Waka Waka" on the Billboard Hot 100?

resultYes

19 comments

57 forecasters

What will be the World Bank monthly price of liquid sulphur in June 2026?

community

656 USD/metric ton

result

Annulled

3 comments

18 forecasters

Will there be a large diffusion of robotics in the US household market before 2033?

Current estimate

3.71 Criteria Fulfilled

0 comments

Announcing: Epoch AI Robotics Series

9 comments

15 forecasters

How many robotics companies will reach a valuation of over $100B before 2032?

Current estimate

5.26 Companies

Key Factors

Hyundai IPO targets $30B for Boston Dynamics
Chinese robot manufacturing dominance
Midea Group's KUKA valued at $12B in robotics

3 comments

12 forecasters

What will be the maximum number of drone deliveries that will be made in a single year before 2031?

Current estimate

500M deliveries

Key Factors

Amazon is already reducing the price of drone delivery for its customers
The number of drones needed for a billion deliveries in a year is remarkably low
Amazon alone expects 500 million annual deliveries by the end of the decade

8 comments

11 forecasters

What proportion of global high-precision reducers unit shipments will Chinese manufacturers collectively hold by the end of 2030?

Current estimate

67.3%

Key Factors

Hands increase reducer demand
Chinese production set to increase
Japanese incumbents do not change their business model

4 comments

16 forecasters

When will general-purpose robots be able to build a small house on their own?

Current estimate

Aug 2032

5 comments

21 forecasters

Will any organization or state launch a $500 billion project aimed at scaling robot manufacturing before 2031?

60%chance

12 comments

40 forecasters

Will 1,000,000 unmanned ground vehicles be deployed by Russian or Ukrainian forces during a single calendar year before 2031?

25%chance

Key Factors

15k for Ukraine alone in 2025, 30k expected in 2026
Drone growth was massive once the use case was clearly defined
Much more expensive than drones but prices are dropping

9 comments

62 forecasters

Will any national military or state-affiliated armed forces deploy at least 5,000 quadruped robots in an active conflict zone before 2031?

40%chance

7% this week

Key Factors

5,000 quadrupeds is not a lot, 10s of thousands of UGVs are already deployed
euromaidanpress.com:
Forbes: Ukraine’s robot dogs failed the war test – they couldn’t hide from Russians. Humanoid robots are up next
Quadrupeds struggle in muddy terrain.

10 comments

23 forecasters

When will commercially available robots be able to build a personal computer on their own?

Current estimate

12 Feb 2030

Key Factors

Millimeter-scale precision tasks with several components at once
Standardized components and subtasks eases robot generalization
deepmind.google:
Gemini Robotics ER 1.6: Enhanced Embodied Reasoning

14 comments

32 forecasters

When will commercially available robots be able to build IKEA furniture on their own?

Current estimate

21 Nov 2029

6 comments

47 forecasters

Will the United States use a nuclear weapon before May 2026?

resultNo

9 comments

35 forecasters

When will traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels?

Current estimate

>01 Jan 2027

Key Factors

Gulf countries risking their own ships