exmateriae

Predictions39960

Comments4330

Member SinceAugust 2021

links

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by exmateriae

8 comments

44 forecasters

What will be the World Bank monthly price of liquid sulphur (Tampa) for Q3 2026?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 4 days

Key Factors

OCP reducing sulfur use in fertilizers
US sulfur supply unaffected by Hormuz issues

21 comments

105 forecasters

Will Shakira's "Dai Dai" outpeak Shakira's "Waka Waka" on the Billboard Hot 100?

3.4%chance

Key Factors

Charting at #75 improves chances
Recent World Cup songs failed to chart
Dai Dai's low initial chart position

19 comments

57 forecasters

What will be the World Bank monthly price of liquid sulphur in June 2026?

community

656 USD/metric ton

result

Annulled

3 comments

16 forecasters

Will there be a large diffusion of robotics in the US household market before 2033?

Current estimate

3.75 Criteria Fulfilled

0 comments

Announcing: Epoch AI Robotics Series

9 comments

14 forecasters

How many robotics companies will reach a valuation of over $100B before 2032?

Current estimate

9.55 Companies

Key Factors

Hyundai IPO targets $30B for Boston Dynamics
Chinese robot manufacturing dominance
Midea Group's KUKA valued at $12B in robotics

3 comments

12 forecasters

What will be the maximum number of drone deliveries that will be made in a single year before 2031?

Current estimate

377M deliveries

Key Factors

Amazon alone expects 500 million annual deliveries by the end of the decade
Amazon is already reducing the price of drone delivery for its customers
The number of drones needed for a billion deliveries in a year is remarkably low

8 comments

11 forecasters

What proportion of global high-precision reducers unit shipments will Chinese manufacturers collectively hold by the end of 2030?

Current estimate

67.7%

Key Factors

Hands increase reducer demand
Chinese production set to increase
Japanese incumbents do not change their business model

4 comments

15 forecasters

When will general-purpose robots be able to build a small house on their own?

Current estimate

Nov 2032

5 comments

15 forecasters

Will any organization or state launch a $500 billion project aimed at scaling robot manufacturing before 2031?

50%chance

7 comments

21 forecasters

Will 1,000,000 unmanned ground vehicles be deployed by Russian or Ukrainian forces during a single calendar year before 2031?

27%chance

Key Factors

15k for Ukraine alone in 2025, 30k expected in 2026
Drone growth was massive once the use case was clearly defined
Much more expensive than drones but prices are dropping

8 comments

46 forecasters

Will any national military or state-affiliated armed forces deploy at least 5,000 quadruped robots in an active conflict zone before 2031?

40%chance

Key Factors

5,000 quadrupeds is not a lot, 10s of thousands of UGVs are already deployed
euromaidanpress.com:
Forbes: Ukraine’s robot dogs failed the war test – they couldn’t hide from Russians. Humanoid robots are up next
Quadrupeds struggle in muddy terrain.

9 comments

20 forecasters

When will commercially available robots be able to build a personal computer on their own?

Current estimate

03 Sep 2030

Key Factors

Millimeter-scale precision tasks with several components at once
Standardized components and subtasks eases robot generalization
deepmind.google:
Gemini Robotics ER 1.6: Enhanced Embodied Reasoning

12 comments

30 forecasters

When will commercially available robots be able to build IKEA furniture on their own?

Current estimate

22 Jan 2030

6 comments

47 forecasters

Will the United States use a nuclear weapon before May 2026?

resultNo

8 comments

31 forecasters

When will traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal levels?

Current estimate

11 Oct 2026