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Haiku
Predictions
8898
Comments
534
Member Since
May 2023
location
Tempe, AZ
occupation
Test Automation Developer / SQA Specialist
links
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Overview
Track Record
Medals
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Questions
Questions by Haiku
Suggest Questions for the AI Warning Signs Community
0
comments
AI Warning Signs
7
comments
12
forecasters
Will an AGI be trained on cheap, accessible hardware before 2040?
5%
chance
2%
this week
2
comments
11
forecasters
Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?
62.8%
chance
1
comment
15
forecasters
Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression explicitly due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?
31%
chance
3
comments
12
forecasters
Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?
85%
chance
1
comment
12
forecasters
Before 2030, will an AI system scam someone without being given explicit instructions to do so?
95%
chance
0
comments
7
forecasters
Will a tool that can easily generate whole-cloth generative AI deepfakes be broadly accessible before 2030?
99%
chance
12
comments
46
forecasters
When will Google DeepMind's Gemini model be publicly released?
community
05 Jan 2024
result
06 Dec 2023 15:00