helpermonkey

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

11.98	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
61.422	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
59.863	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
48.845	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
34.191	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
30.377	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
29.593	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
26.923	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
19.725	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
16.874	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
15.986	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
15.333	When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram?	Continuous
15.311	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
15.143	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
14.984	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
12.534	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
11.203	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
10.836	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
10.266	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
9.915	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
7.812	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
5.773	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
5.659	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
5.613	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
4.827	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
4.285	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
4.157	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
3.998	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
3.678	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
3.338	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
3.170	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
2.882	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
1.510	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
1.270	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.944	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
0.512	Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?	Binary
0.049	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant)	Binary
-0.007	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
-0.075	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
-39.507	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary