emilowk

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

5.732	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
50.034	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
40.243	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
25.423	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
19.203	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
18.907	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
18.365	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
17.244	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
15.767	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
14.715	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
14.522	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
13.442	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
11.639	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
10.821	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
9.002	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
8.022	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
7.074	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?	Binary
5.973	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
5.753	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
5.452	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
5.259	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
4.751	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
4.438	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
3.725	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
3.519	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
2.878	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
2.306	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
1.881	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
0.786	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
-0.676	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
-0.935	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
-1.980	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-5.941	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
-6.084	When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
-8.770	Will the Social Democrats hold a position in government after the next Danish general election?	Binary
-9.757	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
-24.597	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
-53.138	Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024?	Binary