feistyguar

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

5.9	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
168.183	What rank will "Improving Sino-Western Coordination on Global Catastrophic Risk" be on 80,000 Hours's "highest-impact career paths" list on January 1, 2024?	Continuous
64.280	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
60.885	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
52.621	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
44.848	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
38.311	Will the US PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law before February 2023?	Binary
32.761	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
32.308	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
24.746	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
22.015	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
20.451	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
18.478	Will the US “Rewards for Justice” program pay the $10M reward offered for information on the interference in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
17.248	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
12.437	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
11.651	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
11.281	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
10.869	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.817	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
7.686	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
5.769	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
5.581	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
5.342	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
4.346	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
4.150	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
3.739	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
2.870	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
2.585	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
2.256	Will a new Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy be created if the PREVENT Pandemics Act is made law?	Binary
1.785	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
0.980	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
0.852	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-4.646	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
-5.057	How many papers published in 2023 will discuss metagenomic sequencing?	Continuous
-7.466	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
-11.633	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-13.211	Will a decision be made to start and fund a dedicated and systematic science and technology review process at the 2022 BWC Review Conference?	Binary
-26.547	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-46.643	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
-67.729	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
-69.554	How many quantum computing patents will China have filed before 2024?	Continuous
-74.883	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-124.968	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary