moreheadm

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

10.86	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
128.829	How many quantum computing patents will China have filed before 2024?	Continuous
58.367	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
46.031	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
43.119	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
34.981	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
30.510	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
28.569	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
26.084	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
23.619	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
18.721	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
18.102	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
14.326	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
13.339	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
13.066	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
12.196	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
11.981	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
8.462	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
7.242	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
4.971	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
4.933	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
4.442	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
3.967	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
3.382	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
1.857	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
0.852	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
0.621	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.004	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
-6.408	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
-7.687	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
-8.929	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
-31.019	What rank will "Improving Sino-Western Coordination on Global Catastrophic Risk" be on 80,000 Hours's "highest-impact career paths" list on January 1, 2024?	Continuous
-74.032	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous