Ab5A8bd20V

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

22.16	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
161.845	How many entities will be allowed to use blockchain applications in China by 2024?	Continuous
72.371	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
61.564	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
60.434	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
56.434	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
43.178	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
36.332	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
36.063	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
34.627	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
31.734	Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?	Binary
30.097	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
27.949	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
23.361	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
22.588	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
21.568	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
21.382	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
19.940	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
17.896	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
17.374	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
17.069	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
15.536	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
13.731	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
13.206	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
12.351	Will the US supply Ukraine with an Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)?	Continuous
9.009	Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided)	Binary
8.360	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
8.232	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
8.079	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
5.933	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
5.388	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
3.331	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
1.469	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
-7.720	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-24.337	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary