134.459 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
59.836 | How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024? | Continuous |
30.944 | Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024? | Binary |
29.778 | How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022? | Continuous |
24.170 | By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine? | Binary |
22.508 | What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | Continuous |
21.973 | In Project for Awesome 2023, how much money will be granted to EA charities? | Continuous |
20.420 | Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
20.029 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
15.161 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
13.554 | Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
13.453 | What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022? | Continuous |
11.519 | Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
11.295 | Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023? | Binary |
10.761 | When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson? | Continuous |
10.195 | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
7.734 | Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously? | Binary |
5.737 | Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024? | Binary |
5.445 | Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024? | Binary |
3.722 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024? | Binary |
3.642 | Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024? | Binary |
2.656 | Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning? | Binary |
2.499 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023? | Binary |
0.838 | Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023? | Binary |
-0.359 | Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta? | Binary |
-0.607 | How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
-0.934 | Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries? | Binary |
-1.066 | Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024? | Binary |
-1.830 | In Project for Awesome 2023, how many videos will be made for EA charities? | Continuous |
-2.097 | Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024? | Binary |
-2.796 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
-7.424 | Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
-16.600 | Will Finland join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
-17.729 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024? | Binary |
-18.172 | What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | Continuous |
-23.131 | Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024? | Binary |
-28.332 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000) | Binary |
-32.336 | Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023? | Binary |
-37.214 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
-41.347 | How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022? | Continuous |
-49.302 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |