RickMcCoy

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

4.992	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
107.209	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
58.239	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
38.629	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
31.335	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
26.370	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
24.343	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
23.147	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
20.484	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
20.135	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
19.200	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
15.231	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
14.655	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
14.576	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
14.217	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
13.282	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
12.354	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
11.946	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
8.549	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
7.745	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
6.243	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
5.431	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
4.938	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
4.404	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
4.277	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
3.402	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
2.879	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
1.652	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
0.961	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
-4.150	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
-5.874	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-10.018	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
-10.384	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
-27.346	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
-39.545	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
-218.842	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary