ForkLeaf

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

5.651	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
155.507	Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?	Binary
108.948	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
107.577	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
106.933	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
89.196	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
79.841	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
65.062	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
25.394	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
24.522	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
22.462	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
21.729	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
17.721	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
17.418	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
17.409	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
14.108	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
10.263	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
9.876	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
5.585	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
2.741	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
0.778	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
0.446	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
0.270	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
0.228	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
-2.736	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
-9.115	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-11.784	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
-12.933	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-23.528	When will China first reach 250,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases per day?	Continuous
-25.618	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
-34.758	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
-37.911	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-59.642	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-110.630	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
-146.633	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-202.666	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary