vitekmel

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

9.785	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
46.500	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
39.594	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
38.555	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
27.737	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
27.075	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
26.147	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
24.882	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
21.037	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
20.907	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
20.810	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
13.827	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
13.148	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
11.268	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
11.183	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
9.640	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
9.348	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
9.270	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
8.656	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
7.698	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
7.168	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
5.238	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
5.002	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
4.940	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
4.646	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
4.364	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
3.434	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.426	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
2.722	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
2.709	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
2.639	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
1.943	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.823	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
-1.228	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
-6.140	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-37.569	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous