shambala_shambala

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

4.758	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
25.593	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
20.514	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
20.386	How many entities will be allowed to use blockchain applications in China by 2024?	Continuous
19.800	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
19.399	What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?	Continuous
17.973	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
14.788	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
14.680	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
11.747	What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi?	Continuous
11.660	What will be the average annual level of PM2.5 in Beijing, China in 2023?	Continuous
11.181	What will China's Corruption Perception Index level be in 2023?	Continuous
10.649	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
10.638	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
9.717	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
9.572	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
8.476	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
8.388	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
7.691	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.511	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
7.510	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
6.965	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
6.886	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.586	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
6.566	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
5.912	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
5.576	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
5.477	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
5.019	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
4.848	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
4.803	How many parameters will the latest version of the Chinese Wu Dao AI model have before 2024?	Continuous
4.368	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
4.089	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
3.954	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
3.718	Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?	Binary
3.405	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
3.400	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
3.251	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
3.116	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
3.011	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
2.744	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
2.497	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
2.415	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
2.080	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
1.917	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
1.781	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
1.676	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
1.512	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.470	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
1.449	Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?	Binary
1.216	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
1.124	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
0.959	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
0.819	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
0.689	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.527	Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control)	Binary
0.357	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
0.230	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
-0.221	What rank will "Improving Sino-Western Coordination on Global Catastrophic Risk" be on 80,000 Hours's "highest-impact career paths" list on January 1, 2024?	Continuous
-6.095	How many of the companies in China's 'AI Quartet' (not counting SenseTime) will be public before 2024?	Continuous
-7.751	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
-36.829	How many quantum computing patents will China have filed before 2024?	Continuous
-38.400	How many surveillance cameras per 1000 people will the most surveilled city in China have in 2023?	Continuous