AndrewMcKnight

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

2.935k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
90.666	Is solid metallic hydrogen metastable at room temperature?	Binary
88.668	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
88.543	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
87.270	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
86.445	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
86.077	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
84.670	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
83.605	Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?	Binary
82.921	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
81.345	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
79.907	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
79.677	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
76.872	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
75.683	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
75.126	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
74.899	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
74.480	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?	Binary
72.780	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
69.963	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
69.742	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
69.493	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
69.426	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
68.785	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
68.762	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
67.905	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
67.841	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?	Binary
67.481	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
66.098	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
60.877	Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?	Binary
60.252	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
59.980	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
59.613	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
58.820	Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?	Binary
58.457	Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?	Binary
56.693	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
56.426	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
54.860	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
54.716	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
54.418	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
49.025	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
47.625	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
45.963	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
45.052	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
43.756	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
41.277	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
38.974	When will Tesla deliver the 115,000th Model 3?	Continuous
36.087	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
33.694	Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?	Binary
33.123	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
33.078	Major cuts in US science funding in 2018?	Continuous
31.972	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
31.817	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
31.643	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
30.996	Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?	Binary
29.337	When will the "large brain preservation" prize be awarded by the Brain Preservation Foundation?	Continuous
28.724	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
28.482	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
28.068	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
27.951	Winner in 2017 of the Lunar X-prize?	Binary
27.767	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
26.256	A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic	Binary
26.192	Will NASA's InSight Mars Mission Launch in 2018?	Binary
24.973	Will NASA (re)join the (e)LISA space mission for detecting gravitational waves?	Binary
21.919	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
18.268	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
17.538	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
15.484	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
14.140	A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious	Binary
13.820	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
13.466	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
11.253	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
11.081	Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?	Binary
10.345	Airships by 2019?	Binary
10.247	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
8.634	To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?	Binary
7.701	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
5.865	When will the next gene therapy treatment receive approval from the FDA?	Continuous
5.740	Pandemic series: federal funding of "gain of function research of concern" in 2016-18?	Binary
4.706	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
2.644	How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?	Continuous
1.748	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
0.620	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
0.615	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
0.352	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
0.165	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
-	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
-1.388	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
-5.553	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-5.610	1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?	Binary
-5.812	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
-22.921	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
-25.628	How wet will California's 2017-2018 winter be?	Continuous
-29.220	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-30.655	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
-32.354	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
-34.157	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
-35.720	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-39.459	Will AirBnB will go public before 2019?	Binary
-40.589	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary
-48.081	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
-49.913	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-62.136	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
-66.362	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary
-66.677	Will Polarized 3D vision tech be used on self-driving cars by 2019?	Binary
-83.960	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
-87.960	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-99.194	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary