shahar.avin

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

982.2	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
87.996	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
87.755	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
81.349	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
67.429	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
57.885	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
54.375	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
54.223	Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?	Binary
53.903	Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?	Binary
48.507	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
45.755	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
44.789	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
39.337	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
35.643	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
32.560	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
26.972	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
24.364	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
22.626	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
20.442	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
20.330	Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?	Binary
19.788	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
18.986	A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic	Binary
18.803	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
18.583	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
17.506	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
15.156	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
15.033	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
14.067	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
13.374	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
10.598	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
9.379	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
9.262	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
8.360	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
8.105	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
6.754	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
6.534	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
6.416	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
6.393	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
5.886	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
5.686	Will NASA (re)join the (e)LISA space mission for detecting gravitational waves?	Binary
5.426	Pandemic series: federal funding of "gain of function research of concern" in 2016-18?	Binary
5.346	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
5.103	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
5.046	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
4.843	Major cuts in US science funding in 2018?	Continuous
4.821	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
4.734	When will Tesla deliver the 115,000th Model 3?	Continuous
4.703	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
4.496	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
3.927	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
3.629	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
3.310	To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?	Binary
3.160	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
3.020	Will NASA's InSight Mars Mission Launch in 2018?	Binary
2.727	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
2.403	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
2.342	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
2.235	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
2.229	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
2.158	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
1.580	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
1.426	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
1.306	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
1.272	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
1.225	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
1.172	Is solid metallic hydrogen metastable at room temperature?	Binary
1.064	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
1.023	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
0.997	Airships by 2019?	Binary
0.996	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
0.991	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
0.865	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
0.242	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?	Binary
0.227	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?	Binary
0.156	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
0.156	Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?	Binary
0.070	Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?	Binary
0.009	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
-	Will Polarized 3D vision tech be used on self-driving cars by 2019?	Binary
-	A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious	Binary
-	Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?	Binary
-	Winner in 2017 of the Lunar X-prize?	Binary
-	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
-	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
-	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
-	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
-0.111	1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?	Binary
-0.516	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary
-2.296	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-2.969	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
-8.601	Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?	Binary
-20.561	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
-33.282	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
-34.346	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
-43.316	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
-50.043	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-53.111	Will AirBnB will go public before 2019?	Binary