gbear605

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.685k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.531	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
96.796	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
92.599	Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?	Binary
92.596	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
91.020	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
90.659	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
87.936	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
85.984	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
84.607	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
84.532	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
81.511	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
81.486	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
80.282	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
79.854	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
78.150	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
76.475	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
76.372	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
74.786	Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?	Binary
71.369	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
70.862	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
67.773	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
67.721	Is solid metallic hydrogen metastable at room temperature?	Binary
67.711	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
67.709	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
65.985	Winner in 2017 of the Lunar X-prize?	Binary
65.701	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
64.131	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
64.050	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
62.872	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
62.522	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
62.225	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
61.380	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
60.355	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
58.486	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
58.452	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
58.443	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
58.283	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
58.266	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
58.138	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
58.050	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
56.370	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
56.319	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
54.999	Major cuts in US science funding in 2018?	Continuous
50.551	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
50.479	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
50.471	Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?	Binary
50.457	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
50.428	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
48.382	A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious	Binary
48.337	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
48.309	Will Polarized 3D vision tech be used on self-driving cars by 2019?	Binary
44.359	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
43.502	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
42.863	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
40.029	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
37.667	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
35.674	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
28.673	Will NASA (re)join the (e)LISA space mission for detecting gravitational waves?	Binary
28.617	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
26.803	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
26.297	Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?	Binary
26.297	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?	Binary
26.297	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
23.836	Pandemic series: federal funding of "gain of function research of concern" in 2016-18?	Binary
21.385	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
18.897	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
17.239	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
16.341	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
13.739	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
13.734	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
11.100	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?	Binary
10.888	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
8.400	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary
5.729	Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?	Binary
5.632	Airships by 2019?	Binary
2.472	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
1.526	Will NASA's InSight Mars Mission Launch in 2018?	Binary
0.149	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
0.077	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
-	Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?	Binary
-	Will AirBnB will go public before 2019?	Binary
-	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
-	A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic	Binary
-	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
-0.000	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
-8.926	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
-15.048	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
-18.369	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
-21.681	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-21.740	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
-21.750	1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?	Binary
-24.782	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
-28.500	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
-31.326	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
-32.138	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-32.154	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
-32.192	Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?	Binary
-35.837	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-39.587	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
-41.456	When will the "large brain preservation" prize be awarded by the Brain Preservation Foundation?	Continuous
-64.379	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
-74.477	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
-78.437	To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?	Binary
-78.507	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
-82.343	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
-111.400	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
-131.781	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
-132.016	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
-183.643	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
-232.057	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary
-232.160	Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?	Binary
-247.385	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
-329.295	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary