redbubo

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

599.2	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
96.823	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
82.450	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
81.618	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
81.592	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
67.634	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
66.833	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
58.131	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
57.930	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
57.486	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
57.174	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
55.976	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
55.133	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
54.887	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
53.787	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
47.998	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
43.324	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
38.646	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
37.767	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
32.054	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
30.119	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
29.441	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
28.284	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
27.094	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
20.979	Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?	Binary
17.211	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
14.323	Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?	Binary
10.371	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
6.614	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
4.444	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
2.336	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
1.800	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
1.768	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
0.226	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
0.164	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
-	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
-3.343	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
-3.683	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
-23.288	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
-24.508	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
-26.969	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-26.975	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
-31.011	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
-31.390	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-40.387	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
-49.910	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
-55.590	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary
-64.648	Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?	Binary
-88.816	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
-98.469	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-154.233	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary