edikatta

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

360.5	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
81.143	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
67.789	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
54.921	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
51.936	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
47.184	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
43.102	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
42.701	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
36.834	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
35.776	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
30.994	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
26.173	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
26.052	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
23.795	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M?	Binary
18.276	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
17.038	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
17.032	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
11.235	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
10.427	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
8.668	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
7.262	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
6.348	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
5.262	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
5.074	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
5.031	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
4.484	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
4.329	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
3.939	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
2.173	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
2.153	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
2.148	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
1.913	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
1.825	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
1.331	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
1.158	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
0.935	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
0.935	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
0.928	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
0.909	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
0.847	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
0.709	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
0.653	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
0.619	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
0.502	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
0.385	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
0.366	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
0.102	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
0.075	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
0.023	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
0.019	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
0.003	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
-0.075	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-0.816	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary
-1.247	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
-2.422	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
-3.590	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary
-12.656	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-12.816	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-23.451	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary
-31.374	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
-73.069	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
-93.282	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
-98.213	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary