erik.bjareholt

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

737.5	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
84.635	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
76.786	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
72.511	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
69.359	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
67.519	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
62.869	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
61.937	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
60.520	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
58.318	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
58.262	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
48.469	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
44.879	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
39.545	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
39.501	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
34.997	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
33.333	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
33.324	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
30.825	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
28.965	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
26.675	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
24.625	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
22.465	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
21.955	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
20.287	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
17.409	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
15.687	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
14.502	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
12.657	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
12.485	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
11.880	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
11.055	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
9.546	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
7.753	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
7.456	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
6.905	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
5.928	When will Tesla deliver the 115,000th Model 3?	Continuous
4.668	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
4.172	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
4.057	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
2.839	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
2.358	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
1.876	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
1.571	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
0.498	1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?	Binary
-1.265	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-9.043	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
-16.233	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-27.048	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
-32.823	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
-56.900	When will the "large brain preservation" prize be awarded by the Brain Preservation Foundation?	Continuous
-57.076	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
-62.902	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
-63.631	How wet will California's 2017-2018 winter be?	Continuous
-87.203	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-126.207	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary